What is the Theory of Change?
What’s our goal? It’s a simple question. The answer has to be made clear and kept in mind if an initiative is to be successful. Too often groups working together get swept up planning activities. Rather than keeping an end goal in sight, they focus on the activities they want to do in the interest of furthering their cause. This is only natural when you put a bunch of action-oriented people in a room together. Getting right down to doing action plans and developing activities is progress, but something’s missing. Namely, taking the time to consider why we’re doing what we’re doing.
Another approach to moving organizations forward is called the theory of change. It requires thinking about what’s needed to cause a desired change. In this way, the theory of change serves as a roadmap, or a pathway of change. Where do we want to go? How do we get there? Put differently, what changes have to happen along the way to reach our final vision?
The theory of change establishes signposts groups can use to determine their progress. By plotting out what changes have to happen before a goal can be met, progress can be assessed. Of course, the initial roadmap will reflect the groups’ understanding of the issue at the time it’s developed. As understanding of the issue evolves, so too will the roadmap.
Creating a theory of change requires five steps:
- Determine a long-term goal;
- Detail each change that has to happen on the road to that goal;
- Identify the actions that will be taken in an effort to effect the necessary changes;
- Establish signposts that can be used to determine the effectiveness of each action; and
- Produce a narrative justifying the logic of the initiative as a whole.
When planning activities, it’s important to consider what change the completion of those activities will bring about and why. If it’s not a change that will move you toward your goal, it’s necessary to rethink the activities you’ve planned.